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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Blackrock, Inc. (XNYS:BLK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BLK
Name:
BLACKROCK, INC. (XNYS:BLK)
Sector:
- 569000.00K
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. Laurence Fink
Total Employees:
18,900
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -106.49% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLACKROCK, INC.(BLK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
653.18
One Month Price Target:
$657.72
Six Month Price Target :
$680.39
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$707.61
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$651.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$656.16
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$622.93
This week:
$585.53
This month :
$517.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
99.21B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
150.77M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.52%
-13.65%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$793.50
$728.71
$512.86
$577.65
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$707.62
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$693.79
$598.56
$612.57
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BLK
Sharpe Ratio:
2.58%
Comparison:
BLK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 221.34% higher than the industry
& ratio is 13.36% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BLK
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.34%
Monthly returns:
1.36%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 77.65% above industry average
Classification:
BLK, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
BLK has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.29%
Weekly Volatility:
5.12%
Monthly Volatility:
10.23%
Yearly Volatility:
35.45%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.38%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -83.46% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.63%
Weekly VaR:
-10.36%
Monthly VaR:
-20.71%
How Much Can the price of
BLK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-71.75%
This translates to price declining to:
$538.63
This translates to price declining to:
$184.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BLK is a 46.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 25.24% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -11.94% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BLK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.24
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.826
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.168
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.042
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.954
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.867
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.901
Beta is 37.59% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -26.81% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.46%
Sustainable growth rate is -66.45% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.047
Alpha is -183.79% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 297% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BLK
Equity cost of capital:
0.116
Equity cost of capital is -21.09% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.79%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.20%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.74%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.74%
WACC is 49.31% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$130.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.53
Annual revenue growth rate is -62.76% below industry average
EPS:
$39.80
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.03%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -63.88% lower than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$30.30
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 35.16%
Equity growth rate per share is 66.40% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$61.50
EBITDA per share
$57.53
Valuation Analysis Today of
BLK
P/E Ratio:
17.21
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.4
P/E ratio is 38.79% higher than main peers & is 6.61% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $642.68
BLK is 1.63% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $257.49
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $251.88
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.01
Price to sales ratio is -26.94% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.53
Price to free cash flow: 21.56
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
43.16%
Net income growth rate is -70.31% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.81%
Dividend yeild: 2.76%
Previous Dividend: $4.88
Previous adjusted dividend: $4.88
Previous Dividend: $18.02
Expected next dividend best case: $5.31
Expected next dividend worst case: $4.45
Average dividend payment (long-term): $4.01
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.19%
Expected next dividend payment date: 21/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/05/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 23/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-03--$4.88
2021-12-06--$4.13
2021-06-03--$4.13
2022-03-04--$4.88
2021-09-03--$4.13
2021-03-04--$4.13
Dividend growth rate is -24.11% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
24.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
5.36%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.47%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -87.62% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
42.51
Interest coverage ratio is -28.51% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is 1346% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.833
Statistical significance of correlation:
BLK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is 44.68% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.019
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.026
Kurtosis
6.93
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.02
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BLK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
202%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
38.98%
Operating profit margin is -17.13% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
202%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.31%
Effective tax rate is -4.57% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.37%
Return on equity (ROE) is -35.23% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.28%
Return on assets (ROA) is -26.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
12.51
Current ratio is 226.00% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
71.4
Cash conversion cycle is -91.78% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.27%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates -25% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
458.9K
Each employee generates -160% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
324.8K
Each employee generates -126% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 30.1K
Each employee generates -75% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
6.6M
Each employee generates -75% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BLK
AMERICAN EXPRESS COMPANY (XNYS:AXP)
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC (XNYS:HSBC)
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. (XNYS:GS)
THE TORONTO-DOMINION BANK (XNYS:TD)
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA (XNYS:RY)
China Life Insurance Company Limited (OTCM:LFCHY)
S&P Global Inc. (XNYS:SPGI)
RY-PT
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�38%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
19.68B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.72B
9.95B
-
1.84B
2.10B
263.00M
151.00M
2.25B
86.00M
204.00M
418.00M
8.67B
7.67B
6.14B
8.21B
1.91B
6.14B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
100.00M
Differed Income Tax :
76.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
201.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1962000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 27000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 1852000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 200000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 422000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 147000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 143000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
7.26B
-
7.26B
3.80B
-
7.08B
18.15B
2.43B
15.35B
18.42B
7.62B
-
81.37B
125.18B
-
143.33B
-
-
-
-
1.45B
1.45B
9.27B
90.89B
103.02B
-
104.47B
2.00M
28.34B
- 675000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
11.98B
37.49B
141.96B
-
9.27B
2.0B
73.00M
19.00M
- 198000.00K
-
-
- 936000.00K
- 786000.00K
371.00M
- 1351000.00K
- 90000.00K
- 2061000.00K
7.28B
9.34B
- 422000.00K
- 147000.00K
- 569000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BLK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$766.52
$830.39
$899.58
$974.54
$1,055.75