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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Capstar Financial Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:CSTR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CSTR
Name:
CAPSTAR FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CSTR)
Sector:
- 17924.00K
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Timothy K. Schools
Total Employees:
391
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 110.85% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CAPSTAR FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, INC.(CSTR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
19.79
One Month Price Target:
$19.89
Six Month Price Target :
$20.42
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$21.05
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$19.71
Price Upper limit ($) :
$19.9
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$18.65
This week:
$17.24
This month :
$14.69
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
429.72M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
21.95M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.25%
-27.31%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.08
$22.65
$14.50
$16.93
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$21.85
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.33
$17.72
$18.25
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CSTR
Sharpe Ratio:
1.93%
Comparison:
CSTR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 57.47% higher than the industry
& is -15.13% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CSTR
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.32%
Monthly returns:
1.27%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 40.07% above industry average
Classification:
CSTR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.58
Statistical test of Returns:
CSTR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.83%
Weekly Volatility:
6.34%
Monthly Volatility:
12.68%
Yearly Volatility:
43.91%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.08%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -97.32% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.76%
Weekly VaR:
-12.87%
Monthly VaR:
-25.75%
How Much Can the price of
CSTR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-89.20%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.43
This translates to price declining to:
$2.14
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CSTR is a 81.74% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 55.70% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.77% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CSTR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.95
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.622
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.88
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.888
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.522
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.891
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.734
Beta is 28.69% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -1.94% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.93%
Sustainable growth rate is 30.65% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.057
Alpha is 387.85% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 360% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CSTR
Equity cost of capital:
0.096
Equity cost of capital is -1.31% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.04%
Before-tax cost of debt:
23.12%
After-tax cost of debt:
18.27%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
18.27%
WACC is -15.54% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.01
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.18
Annual revenue growth rate is 5.70% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.17
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
20.55%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 70.96% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.45
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 168.24%
Equity growth rate per share is 334.46% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$1.35
EBITDA per share
$3.22
Valuation Analysis Today of
CSTR
P/E Ratio:
9.5
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
142.28
P/E ratio is -93.32% lower than main peers & is -23.40% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $26.93
CSTR is -26.50% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $625.31
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $31.92
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.29
Price to sales ratio is -22.99% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.18
Price to free cash flow: 5.73
Price to free cash flow ratio is -66.74% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
232.01%
Net income growth rate is 321.29% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.73%
Dividend yeild: 1.41%
Previous Dividend: $0.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.10
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Expected next dividend best case: $0.11
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.09
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.06
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 8.67%
Expected next dividend payment date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$0.10
2021-11-09--$0.06
2021-05-11--$0.06
2022-02-08--$0.06
2021-08-10--$0.06
2021-02-09--$0.05
Dividend growth rate is -63.19% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
8.01%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-83.09%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.93%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-9.61%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.44% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.35
Interest coverage ratio is 1148.76% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-25.09%
Annual debt growth is -8022% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.43
Statistical significance of correlation:
CSTR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -14.15% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.041
Kurtosis
16.237
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.936
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CSTR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.16%
Effective tax rate is -6.45% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is 9.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.51%
Return on assets (ROA) is -34.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.80%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
337.3K
Each employee generates -11% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
181.0K
Each employee generates -20% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
123.6K
Each employee generates -13% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 45.8K
Each employee generates -155% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.4M
Each employee generates -155% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CSTR
GORES HOLDINGS VIII, INC. (XNAS:GIIX)
International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. (XNAS:IGIC)
FCAC
THBR
SIERRA BANCORP (XNAS:BSRR)
ENTERPRISE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EBTC)
CNB FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:CCNE)
GLOBAL INDEMNITY GROUP, LLC (XNYS:GBLI)
FIDUS INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:FDUS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
131.89M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
34.13M
-
54.72M
54.72M
-
-
-
96.97M
6.84M
3.40M
70.76M
-
48.32M
60.52M
12.20M
48.32M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
819.00K
Differed Income Tax :
- 58.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
388.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 6068.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2630.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 23587.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 17833.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 91.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 49616.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
336.08M
460.56M
796.64M
7.68M
-
-
-
25.46M
41.07M
6.25M
462.33M
-
-
535.11M
3.73B
3.19B
-
-
-
-
-
-
29.57M
-
29.57M
2.85B
2.82B
22.20M
119.84M
- 21334.0K
248.21M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
368.92M
3.19B
922.89M
29.57M
- 306515.0K
20.85M
- 81997.00K
- 110851.00K
-
-
- 767.00K
- 1320.00K
71.63M
69.54M
-
- 59144.00K
355.98M
415.13M
- 17833.00K
- 91.00K
- 17924.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CSTR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$21.16
$119.56
$127.16
$135.23
$143.82