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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Enphase Energy, Inc. (XNAS:ENPH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ENPH
Name:
ENPHASE ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:ENPH)
Sector:
90.07M
Industry:
Solar
CEO:
Mr. Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman
Total Employees:
2,260
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 344.82% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ENPHASE ENERGY, INC.(ENPH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOLAR INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
279.07
One Month Price Target:
$281.36
Six Month Price Target :
$292.84
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$306.6
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$277.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$282.97
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$249.97
This week:
$214.01
This month :
$148.95
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
39.66B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
135.46M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
42.44%
-26.%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$413.68
$349.36
$144.46
$208.78
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$328.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$314.69
$229.54
$243.45
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ENPH
Sharpe Ratio:
9.14%
Comparison:
ENPH, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 42.15% higher than the industry
& ratio is 301.04% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ENPH
Daily returns:
0.49%
Weekly returns:
2.47%
Monthly returns:
9.90%
Yearly returns:
78.67%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 50.98% above industry average
Classification:
ENPH, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.03
Statistical test of Returns:
ENPH has yielded a higher return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.32%
Weekly Volatility:
11.89%
Monthly Volatility:
23.78%
Yearly Volatility:
82.38%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.95%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.22% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.43%
Weekly VaR:
-23.31%
Monthly VaR:
-46.63%
How Much Can the price of
ENPH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-36%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$179.91
This translates to price declining to:
$41.86
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ENPH is a 229.08% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 181.92% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 9.43% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ENPH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.47
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.088
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.538
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.346
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.698
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.175
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.256
Beta is 16.85% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.792
Beta is -18.10% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
24.29%
Sustainable growth rate is -40.50% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.056
Alpha is 66.92% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 6720% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ENPH
Equity cost of capital:
0.132
Equity cost of capital is -14.40% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.11%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.93%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.93%
WACC is -42.06% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
114.21
Annual revenue growth rate is 177.34% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.16
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-9.59%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 0.00% lower than the Solar industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.40
-
-
Debt per share
$8.84
EBITDA per share
$1.78
Valuation Analysis Today of
ENPH
P/E Ratio:
196.79
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
229.87
P/E ratio is -14.39% lower than main peers & is 44.19% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $158.32
ENPH is 76.27% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
24.84
Price to sales ratio is 416.69% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
114.21
Price to free cash flow: 116.10
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-1092.50%
Net income growth rate is 322.94% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
361.64%
Net debt to equity ratio:
313.02%
Debt to assets ratio:
52.89%
Net debt to assets ratio:
45.78%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -10.92% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
15.92
Interest coverage ratio is 177.67% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
210.51%
Annual debt growth is 128% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.502
Statistical significance of correlation:
ENPH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.47
Stock price is 6.93% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.47
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.043
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.134
Kurtosis
8.33
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.79
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ENPH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
160%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.21%
Operating profit margin is 89.61% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
160%
Effective Tax Rate:
10.29%
Effective tax rate is 24.93% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
50.02%
Return on equity (ROE) is -155.97% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.32%
Return on assets (ROA) is 12.26% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
3.44
Current ratio is 22.62% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
46
Cash conversion cycle is -12.20% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 14.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
28.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
673.3K
Each employee generates 57% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
107.0K
Each employee generates 62% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
73.3K
Each employee generates 190% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
39.9K
Each employee generates -240% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
311.7K
Each employee generates -240% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 88.71%
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Competitors/Peer firms of
ENPH
TRIMBLE INC. (XNAS:TRMB)
MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:MPWR)
NETAPP, INC. (XNAS:NTAP)
SPLUNK INC. (XNAS:SPLK)
SS&C TECHNOLOGIES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SSNC)
NICE LTD (XNAS:NICE)
ZoomInfo Technologies Inc (XNAS:ZI)
AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:AKAM)
ENTEGRIS, INC. (XNAS:ENTG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.52B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
913.14M
608.45M
119.43M
122.05M
272.75M
150.70M
-
392.18M
1.08M
15.18M
42.44M
241.72M
216.27M
165.57M
180.00M
18.53M
165.57M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
15.56M
Differed Income Tax :
3.17M
Stock Based Compensation :
47.80M
Change in Working Capital :
- 19140.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 24224.00K
Other Working Capital:
22.06M
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.24M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
102.44M
Investments in PP&E:
- 12375.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 24625.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
251.85M
811.62M
1.06B
358.31M
96.44M
40.57M
1.56B
104.52M
195.64M
103.17M
-
180.29M
120.88M
704.49M
-
2.26B
104.74M
90.94M
-
68.69M
189.38M
453.76M
1.20B
78.88M
1.48B
-
1.93B
1.00K
- 328206.00K
- 7324.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.31B
330.98M
2.26B
-
1.29B
1.0B
76.74M
-
39.74M
-
-
-
-
- 8940.00K
- 8940.00K
- 704.00K
132.53M
251.85M
119.32M
102.44M
- 12375.00K
90.07M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ENPH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$303.50
$333.44
$366.33
$402.47
$442.17