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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fastly, Inc. (XNYS:FSLY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FSLY
Name:
FASTLY, INC. (XNYS:FSLY)
Sector:
- 19387.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Joshua Bixby
Total Employees:
976
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -100.47% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FASTLY, INC.(FSLY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
8.47
One Month Price Target:
$8.54
Six Month Price Target :
$8.88
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$9.29
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$8.39
Price Upper limit ($) :
$8.55
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$7.49
This week:
$6.29
This month :
$4.11
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.10B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
122.20M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
45.68%
-33.63%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.00
$10.93
$3.94
$6.01
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$10.26
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.82
$6.67
$7.12
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FSLY
Sharpe Ratio:
0.43%
Comparison:
FSLY, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -55.87% lower than the industry
& is -81.34% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FSLY
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.66%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -20.85% below industry average
Classification:
FSLY, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.48
Statistical test of Returns:
FSLY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.62%
Weekly Volatility:
12.58%
Monthly Volatility:
25.15%
Yearly Volatility:
87.13%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.18%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -25.60% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.52%
Weekly VaR:
-25.76%
Monthly VaR:
-51.51%
How Much Can the price of
FSLY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-45%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.64
This translates to price declining to:
$1.27
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FSLY is a 263.56% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 211.46% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 56.47% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FSLY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.44
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.202
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.699
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.704
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.619
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.821
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.31
Beta is 9.58% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is 7.48% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.051
Alpha is 116.74% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -326% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FSLY
Equity cost of capital:
0.130
Equity cost of capital is 5.56% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.37%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.59%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.46%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.46%
WACC is -25.31% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.04
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.06
Annual revenue growth rate is -49.77% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.01
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
36.80%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 34.53% higher than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$8.31
EBITDA per share
-$1.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
FSLY
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
172.32
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
FSLY is -102.37% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.78
Price to sales ratio is -75.73% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.06
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
371.97%
Net income growth rate is 52.34% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
103.95%
Net debt to equity ratio:
83.44%
Debt to assets ratio:
47.57%
Net debt to assets ratio:
38.18%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -13.30% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-25.17
Interest coverage ratio is -147.38% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2205.27%
Annual debt growth is 136% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.70%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.396
Statistical significance of correlation:
FSLY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -21.24% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.103
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.336
Kurtosis
9.897
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.213
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FSLY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
203%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-62.41%
Operating profit margin is 225.68% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
203%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.03%
Effective tax rate is -99.90% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-24.19%
Return on equity (ROE) is 84.96% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-11.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is 188.23% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
5.26
Current ratio is 75.54% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
46.3
Cash conversion cycle is -51.10% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-16.94%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
381.0K
Each employee generates 10% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 160.0K
Each employee generates -1589% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 242.1K
Each employee generates 1288% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 19.9K
Each employee generates 156% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.4M
Each employee generates 156% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 69.57%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 4450.11% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
FSLY
VIZIO HOLDING CORP. (XNYS:VZIO)
BLACKBERRY LIMITED (XNYS:BB)
PRSP
XEROX HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:XRX)
WORKIVA INC. (XNYS:WK)
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:DOCN)
ALTERYX, INC. (XNYS:AYX)
SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNYS:SAIC)
TERADATA CORPORATION (XNYS:TDC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong sell
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
371.86M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
183.42M
188.44M
138.31M
122.94M
282.19M
159.25M
-
420.50M
1.79M
6.21M
73.94M
- 156192.00K
- 232062.00K
- 236278.00K
- 236338.00K
- 60.00K
- 236278.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
15.16M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
40.02M
Change in Working Capital :
- 4107.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 9219.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 13190.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 2387.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 775.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 148193.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
245.79M
393.95M
639.74M
73.72M
-
23.62M
737.08M
238.01M
637.57M
97.29M
394.46M
-
30.02M
1.40B
-
2.13B
8.25M
45.45M
-
-
86.47M
140.17M
1.02B
2.21M
1.02B
-
1.16B
2.00K
- 575154.00K
- 9496.0K
1.56B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
603.92M
976.72M
2.13B
788.41M
1.06B
815.0M
242.85M
- 3810.00K
87.68M
- 7159.00K
-
-
-
12.61M
5.45M
- 219.00K
79.73M
246.69M
166.96M
- 13190.00K
- 6197.00K
- 19387.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FSLY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$9.32
$10.22
$11.20
$12.28
$13.47