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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Inogen, Inc. (XNAS:INGN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
INGN
Name:
INOGEN, INC. (XNAS:INGN)
Sector:
- 22241.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. Scott Wilkinson
Total Employees:
1,021
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -20.83% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INOGEN, INC.(INGN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
27.88
One Month Price Target:
$28.04
Six Month Price Target :
$28.81
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.74
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$27.69
Price Upper limit ($) :
$28.03
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$25.77
This week:
$23.16
This month :
$18.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
632.03M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
22.87M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.9%
-26.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.70
$33.28
$18.06
$22.48
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$31.84
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.90
$23.91
$24.86
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
INGN
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.10%
Comparison:
INGN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -238.86% lower than the industry
& is -192.28% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
INGN
Daily returns:
-0.07%
Weekly returns:
-0.34%
Monthly returns:
-1.36%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -206.37% below industry average
Classification:
INGN, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
INGN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.66%
Weekly Volatility:
8.18%
Monthly Volatility:
16.35%
Yearly Volatility:
56.65%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.55%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -30.36% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.58%
Weekly VaR:
-16.95%
Monthly VaR:
-33.89%
How Much Can the price of
INGN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.30
This translates to price declining to:
$4.18
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
INGN is a 139.20% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 104.92% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 16.48% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
INGN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.99
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.84
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.188
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.7
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.68
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.507
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.311
Beta is -24.13% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is -6.57% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.11%
Sustainable growth rate is -76.10% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.263
Alpha is -635.25% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1674% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
INGN
Equity cost of capital:
0.100
Equity cost of capital is -4.59% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.01%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.11%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.09%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.09%
WACC is 21.47% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$15.37
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.78
Annual revenue growth rate is -101.47% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.88
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.98
EBITDA per share
$0.85
Valuation Analysis Today of
INGN
P/E Ratio:
61.05
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
105.43
P/E ratio is -42.09% lower than main peers & is -74.93% lower than the industry
-
INGN is -113.01% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.81
Price to sales ratio is -80.51% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.78
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-111.55%
Net income growth rate is -214.85% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
6.25%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-52.36%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.72%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-39.52%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -87.81% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
668.03
Interest coverage ratio is 4908.05% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
166.50%
Annual debt growth is -31% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.346
Statistical significance of correlation:
INGN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is -26.08% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.02
Kurtosis
11.229
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.007
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
INGN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
195%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-0.63%
Operating profit margin is -96.31% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
195%
Effective Tax Rate:
-572.61%
Effective tax rate is -1142.54% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-5.53%
Return on equity (ROE) is -43.59% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-4.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is 23.84% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
5.32
Current ratio is -17.74% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
40.7
Cash conversion cycle is -26.99% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-13.45%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
344.2K
Each employee generates -9% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
19.0K
Each employee generates 203% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 19.4K
Each employee generates -35% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 21.8K
Each employee generates 53% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
153.3K
Each employee generates 53% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 17.73%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -13619.18% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
INGN
Y-MABS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:YMAB)
Uniqure NV (XNAS:QURE)
LANTHEUS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:LNTH)
BIONANO GENOMICS, INC. (XNAS:BNGO)
CASTLE BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:CSTL)
SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SGMO)
ALPHATEC HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ATEC)
IMMUNOGEN, INC. (XNAS:IMGN)
PULMONX CORPORATION (XNAS:LUNG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
351.46M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
179.84M
171.62M
17.93M
40.54M
155.91M
115.36M
-
173.83M
101.00K
29.00K
22.29M
19.37M
- 2214.00K
- 19815.00K
- 2946.00K
16.87M
- 19815.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.76M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.67M
Change in Working Capital :
- 17480.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 12802.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 864.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.17M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 18098.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 4143.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
213.40M
9.99M
223.39M
35.42M
34.08M
25.24M
318.12M
63.41M
32.93M
58.00M
-
-
2.15M
156.49M
-
474.62M
18.11M
3.40M
492.00K
8.69M
29.62M
59.82M
22.41M
22.59M
56.51M
-
116.33M
23.00K
55.06M
1.2M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
353.67M
358.29M
474.62M
-
25.81M
- 187589.0K
-
91.00K
- 4052.00K
-
-
-
-
- 108.00K
- 108.00K
133.00K
- 22125.00K
213.40M
235.52M
- 18098.00K
- 4143.00K
- 22241.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
INGN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$29.83
$31.83
$33.96
$36.23
$38.65