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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (XNYS:JEF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
JEF
Name:
JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GROUP INC. (XNYS:JEF)
Sector:
- 1242958.00K
Industry:
Financial Conglomerates
CEO:
Mr. Richard Handler
Total Employees:
5,556
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -12.39% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GROUP INC.(JEF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FINANCIAL CONGLOMERATES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
31.5
One Month Price Target:
$31.75
Six Month Price Target :
$32.97
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$34.44
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$31.39
Price Upper limit ($) :
$31.67
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.8
This week:
$27.7
This month :
$23.9
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.41B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
232.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.62%
-13.38%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.38
$35.73
$23.62
$27.27
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$34.54
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.76
$28.45
$29.24
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
JEF
Sharpe Ratio:
3.22%
Comparison:
JEF, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 571.09% higher than the industry
& ratio is 41.27% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
JEF
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.47%
Monthly returns:
1.90%
Yearly returns:
1.02%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 2137.36% above industry average
Classification:
JEF, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.49
Statistical test of Returns:
JEF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.67%
Weekly Volatility:
5.97%
Monthly Volatility:
11.95%
Yearly Volatility:
41.39%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.52%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.57% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.39%
Weekly VaR:
-12.06%
Monthly VaR:
-24.11%
How Much Can the price of
JEF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-83.53%
This translates to price declining to:
$25.13
This translates to price declining to:
$5.19
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
JEF is a 70.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 45.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -13.00% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
JEF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.39
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.8
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.132
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.825
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.896
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.915
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.962
Beta is 44.45% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.541
Beta is -9.79% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.70%
Sustainable growth rate is -63.46% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.101
Alpha is -179.61% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 643% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
JEF
Equity cost of capital:
0.127
Equity cost of capital is -7.54% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.52%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$35.62
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.69
Annual revenue growth rate is 167.89% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.20
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
25.79%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -49.19% lower than the Financial Conglomerates industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.47
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 71.27%
Equity growth rate per share is -88.79% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$40.61
EBITDA per share
$8.60
Valuation Analysis Today of
JEF
P/E Ratio:
7.15
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.78
P/E ratio is -63.84% lower than main peers & is -75.19% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $149.91
JEF is -78.99% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $112.01
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $42.54
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.88
Price to sales ratio is -28.27% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.69
Price to free cash flow: 4.87
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
1130.36%
Net income growth rate is 73.51% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.09%
Dividend yeild: 3.49%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.10
Expected next dividend best case: $0.35
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.25
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 9.83%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.30
2021-11-12--$0.25
2021-05-14--$0.20
2022-02-11--$0.30
2021-08-13--$0.25
2021-02-11--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is -91.70% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
88.92%
Net debt to equity ratio:
97.41%
Debt to assets ratio:
15.72%
Net debt to assets ratio:
17.22%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -81.08% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.80%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 15.05%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.734
Statistical significance of correlation:
JEF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.652
Stock price is 12.58% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.652
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.037
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.058
Kurtosis
3.822
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.239
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
JEF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
165%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.67%
Operating profit margin is -9.06% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
165%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.91%
Effective tax rate is -12.97% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.38%
Return on equity (ROE) is -70.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.36%
Return on assets (ROA) is -58.77% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
0.98
Current ratio is -66.77% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
387
Cash conversion cycle is 2960.53% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.69%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates 32% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
359.8K
Each employee generates 57% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
255.5K
Each employee generates 75% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 223.7K
Each employee generates 459% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
7.3M
Each employee generates 459% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
JEF
VOYA FINANCIAL, INC. (XNYS:VOYA)
RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LTD. (XNYS:RNR)
REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA, INCORPORATED (XNYS:RGA)
Sprott Physical Gold Trust (ARCX:PHYS)
RNR-PE
ARES MANAGEMENT CORPORATION (XNYS:ARES)
VOYA-PB
OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNYS:ORI)
CULLEN/FROST BANKERS, INC. (XNYS:CFR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
2/28/22
Revenue:
8.28B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.86B
3.42B
-
-
1.29B
-
164.59M
1.46B
213.98M
-
156.24M
2.00B
1.96B
1.42B
1.85B
422.85M
1.42B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
47.40M
Differed Income Tax :
- 67271.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
9.75M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1378457.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 479872.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 154725.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 1215328.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 27630.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
2/28/22
2022
Q1
8.50B
-
8.50B
10.08B
-
838.09M
19.42B
909.57M
1.75B
148.98M
35.30B
-
2.51B
40.62B
-
60.04B
-
9.40B
-
-
10.43B
19.83B
9.44B
20.08B
29.52B
-
49.35B
240.17M
8.19B
- 330308.0K
2.39B
February 28, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
6.32B
10.62B
59.96B
-
18.84B
10.3B
-
- 77448.00K
- 105078.00K
- 1671637.00K
-
- 338058.00K
- 72331.00K
998.65M
- 1083380.00K
- 467.00K
- 2404253.00K
9.42B
11.83B
- 1215328.00K
- 27630.00K
- 1242958.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
JEF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$34.61
$71.68
$78.38
$85.70
$93.70