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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Lakeland Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:LBAI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LBAI
Name:
LAKELAND BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:LBAI)
Sector:
28.40M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Shara
Total Employees:
681
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -64.82% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LAKELAND BANCORP, INC.(LBAI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
16.17
One Month Price Target:
$16.25
Six Month Price Target :
$16.62
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$17.07
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$16.1
Price Upper limit ($) :
$16.26
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.21
This week:
$14.03
This month :
$11.9
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.04B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
64.80M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.26%
-23.75%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.60
$18.58
$11.74
$13.76
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$17.91
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.48
$14.42
$14.86
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LBAI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.97%
Comparison:
LBAI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -20.92% lower than the industry
& is -57.38% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LBAI
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.18%
Monthly returns:
0.74%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -18.68% below industry average
Classification:
LBAI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.64
Statistical test of Returns:
LBAI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.89%
Weekly Volatility:
6.47%
Monthly Volatility:
12.95%
Yearly Volatility:
44.85%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.13%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -61.13% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.91%
Weekly VaR:
-13.21%
Monthly VaR:
-26.42%
How Much Can the price of
LBAI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-91.53%
This translates to price declining to:
$12.46
This translates to price declining to:
$1.37
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LBAI is a 86.49% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 59.76% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.34% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LBAI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.83
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.624
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.882
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.709
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.569
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.977
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.023
Beta is -18.91% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -13.88% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.45%
Sustainable growth rate is -7.48% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.000
Alpha is -96.71% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LBAI
Equity cost of capital:
0.088
Equity cost of capital is -9.40% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.55%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.65%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.83%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.83%
WACC is -23.52% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.17
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.96
Annual revenue growth rate is -14.97% below industry average
EPS:
$1.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.00%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -16.84% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.37
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 19.95%
Equity growth rate per share is -48.49% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$3.82
EBITDA per share
$2.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
LBAI
P/E Ratio:
10.45
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.11
P/E ratio is -5.93% lower than main peers & is -15.77% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $20.35
LBAI is -20.54% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $24.83
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.66
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.88
Price to sales ratio is -9.24% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.96
Price to free cash flow: 11.77
Price to free cash flow ratio is -53.84% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
41.27%
Net income growth rate is -25.06% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.03%
Dividend yeild: 3.40%
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.55
Expected next dividend best case: $0.15
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.14
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.13
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.54%
Expected next dividend payment date: 16/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 18/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-06--$0.15
2021-11-04--$0.14
2021-05-06--$0.14
2022-02-04--$0.14
2021-07-30--$0.14
2021-02-05--$0.13
Dividend growth rate is -93.46% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
22.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-15.98%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.41%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.69%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.55% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.91
Interest coverage ratio is 734.10% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.475
Statistical significance of correlation:
LBAI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -5.21% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.039
Kurtosis
14.449
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.085
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LBAI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
24.99%
Effective tax rate is 15.98% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is -32.44% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.85%
Return on assets (ROA) is -62.92% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.64%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
396.4K
Each employee generates 4% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
217.4K
Each employee generates -4% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
128.9K
Each employee generates -9% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
41.7K
Each employee generates -50% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.7M
Each employee generates -50% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LBAI
REPUBLIC BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:RBCAA)
HOMESTREET, INC. (XNAS:HMST)
BMTC GROUP INC. (XTSE:GBT)
WORLD ACCEPTANCE CORPORATION (XNAS:WRLD)
MIDCAP FINANCIAL INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:MFIC)
Washington Trust Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:WASH)
PREFERRED BANK (XNAS:PFBC)
NATIONAL WESTERN LIFE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NWLI)
NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:NFBK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
269.95M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
99.56M
100.78M
1.22M
-
-
269.91M
21.42M
9.60M
148.06M
-
87.80M
117.05M
29.25M
87.80M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.28M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.44M
Change in Working Capital :
- 3239.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
11.93M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
29.34M
Investments in PP&E:
- 944.00K
Net Acquisitions:
326.24M
Purchases of Investments:
- 304750.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
421.67M
1.17B
1.59B
25.00M
-
-
-
85.87M
271.83M
10.84M
2.13B
-
-
2.50B
12.77B
10.28B
-
-
-
-
-
-
247.60M
-
247.60M
9.43B
9.19B
852.11M
266.46M
- 27836.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.09B
10.28B
3.30B
247.60M
- 174071.0K
83.89M
- 60002.00K
44.43M
-
-
-
- 8809.00K
128.18M
119.37M
-
193.14M
421.67M
228.53M
29.34M
- 944.00K
28.40M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LBAI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$20.39
$21.53
$22.73
$24.00
$25.34