_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Natera, Inc. (XNAS:NTRA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NTRA
Name:
NATERA, INC. (XNAS:NTRA)
Sector:
- 153162.00K
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. Steven Chapman
Total Employees:
2,670
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -49.68% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NATERA, INC.(NTRA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
47.65
One Month Price Target:
$48.01
Six Month Price Target :
$49.79
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$51.93
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$47.33
Price Upper limit ($) :
$48.11
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$43.03
This week:
$37.32
This month :
$27.
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.63B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
96.96M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
39.95%
-32.79%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$69.07
$59.17
$26.23
$36.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$55.95
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.83
$39.33
$41.47
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NTRA
Sharpe Ratio:
3.00%
Comparison:
NTRA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 19.02% higher than the industry
& ratio is 31.49% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NTRA
Daily returns:
0.15%
Weekly returns:
0.76%
Monthly returns:
3.05%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 31.11% above industry average
Classification:
NTRA, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.34
Statistical test of Returns:
NTRA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.79%
Weekly Volatility:
10.72%
Monthly Volatility:
21.44%
Yearly Volatility:
74.26%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -31.30% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.69%
Weekly VaR:
-21.67%
Monthly VaR:
-43.34%
How Much Can the price of
NTRA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-37%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$30.22
This translates to price declining to:
$7.15
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NTRA is a 205.91% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 162.07% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 24.15% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NTRA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.34
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.761
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.076
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.814
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.877
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.045
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.966
Beta is 38.41% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is 13.24% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.243
Alpha is 45.66% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1546% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NTRA
Equity cost of capital:
0.123
Equity cost of capital is 9.53% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.50%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.06%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.63%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.63%
WACC is -1.36% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.88
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
8.52
Annual revenue growth rate is -53.62% below industry average
EPS:
-$5.88
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
42.78%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 59.37% higher than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$3.59
EBITDA per share
-$5.42
Valuation Analysis Today of
NTRA
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
139.47
-
-
NTRA is -121.80% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.92
Price to sales ratio is -27.15% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
8.52
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
135.13%
Net income growth rate is -159.12% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
64.20%
Net debt to equity ratio:
45.21%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.42%
Net debt to assets ratio:
21.42%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -37.40% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-63.18
Interest coverage ratio is 125.26% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
57.29%
Annual debt growth is -45% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.292
Statistical significance of correlation:
NTRA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is -40.19% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.075
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.21
Kurtosis
13.035
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.088
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NTRA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
187%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-81.27%
Operating profit margin is -27.77% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
187%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.12%
Effective tax rate is -100.63% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-100.76%
Return on equity (ROE) is -579.60% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-47.74%
Return on assets (ROA) is -82.30% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
4.24
Current ratio is -14.64% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
47.7
Cash conversion cycle is -4.01% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.42%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
249.9K
Each employee generates -33% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 196.9K
Each employee generates -756% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 204.7K
Each employee generates -1380% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 57.4K
Each employee generates 2536% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
61.6K
Each employee generates 2536% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 164.12%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -9215.37% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NTRA
UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION (XNAS:UTHR)
SYNEOS HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:SYNH)
NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:NBIX)
Maravai LifeSciences Holdings Inc (XNAS:MRVI)
CRISPR Therapeutics Ltd (XNAS:CRSP)
JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:JAZZ)
ABCELLERA BIOLOGICS INC. (XNAS:ABCL)
EXELIXIS, INC. (XNAS:EXEL)
ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC. (XNAS:RARE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
667.30M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
354.82M
312.48M
304.43M
-
550.34M
-
-
854.77M
3.66M
8.32M
11.85M
- 525626.00K
- 542287.00K
- 546458.00K
- 545795.00K
663.00K
- 546458.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.15M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
35.09M
Change in Working Capital :
- 42549.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 46119.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 2810.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.64M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 137277.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 15885.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 24977.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
158.30M
593.66M
751.96M
167.86M
25.05M
35.36M
980.23M
142.76M
-
-
-
-
21.68M
164.44M
-
1.14B
18.07M
55.29M
788.00K
13.91M
143.79M
231.07M
348.18M
2.53M
371.26M
-
602.33M
10.00K
- 1533431.00K
- 13904.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.21B
542.34M
1.14B
-
403.48M
245.2M
247.90M
-
207.03M
-
-
-
-
4.16M
4.16M
-
73.91M
158.53M
84.61M
- 137277.00K
- 15885.00K
- 153162.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NTRA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$52.09
$56.78
$61.88
$67.44
$73.50