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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nektar Therapeutics (XNAS:NKTR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NKTR
Name:
NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS (XNAS:NKTR)
Sector:
- 92627.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Howard Robin
Total Employees:
740
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 20.45% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS(NKTR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
4.01
One Month Price Target:
$4.04
Six Month Price Target :
$4.16
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$4.32
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$3.97
Price Upper limit ($) :
$4.04
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$3.64
This week:
$3.18
This month :
$2.35
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
704.64M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
187.40M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
24.69%
-60.87%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.74
$4.97
$2.28
$3.05
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$4.71
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.55
$3.30
$3.47
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NKTR
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.99%
Comparison:
NKTR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -253.59% lower than the industry
& is -231.03% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NKTR
Daily returns:
-0.12%
Weekly returns:
-0.62%
Monthly returns:
-2.49%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -218.31% below industry average
Classification:
NKTR, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.41
Statistical test of Returns:
NKTR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.46%
Weekly Volatility:
9.97%
Monthly Volatility:
19.95%
Yearly Volatility:
69.09%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.34%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -25.19% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.28%
Weekly VaR:
-20.76%
Monthly VaR:
-41.52%
How Much Can the price of
NKTR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.48
This translates to price declining to:
$0.60
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NKTR is a 193.04% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 151.04% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -6.19% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NKTR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.14
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.816
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.155
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.947
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.99
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.663
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.418
Beta is -19.68% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -1.13% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.408
Alpha is -387.59% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2597% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NKTR
Equity cost of capital:
0.110
Equity cost of capital is -0.81% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.11%
Before-tax cost of debt:
29.21%
After-tax cost of debt:
23.08%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
23.08%
WACC is 39.30% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.55
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.24
Annual revenue growth rate is -116.08% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.67
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
4.31%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -56.82% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.65
EBITDA per share
-$2.32
Valuation Analysis Today of
NKTR
P/E Ratio:
8.39
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
38.85
P/E ratio is -78.40% lower than main peers & is -90.65% lower than the industry
-
NKTR is -101.67% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.29
Price to sales ratio is -82.00% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.24
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-171.14%
Net income growth rate is -342.47% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
20.17%
Net debt to equity ratio:
12.21%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.98%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.25%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -71.60% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-10.47
Interest coverage ratio is -91.16% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-4.73%
Annual debt growth is -103% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.344
Statistical significance of correlation:
NKTR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 1.06% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.053
Kurtosis
52.741
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-3.585
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NKTR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
306%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-439.72%
Operating profit margin is 2.57% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
306%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.12%
Effective tax rate is -102.11% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-80.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is 40.96% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-47.97%
Return on assets (ROA) is 135.11% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
6.97
Current ratio is -13.94% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-5.2
Cash conversion cycle is -100.98% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-4.27%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
139.3K
Each employee generates -91% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 587.6K
Each employee generates -252% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 663.9K
Each employee generates -619% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 125.2K
Each employee generates -185% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
392.8K
Each employee generates -185% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -2.06%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -42.65% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NKTR
BURFORD CAPITAL LIMITED (XNYS:BUR)
VERACYTE, INC. (XNAS:VCYT)
PRIVIA HEALTH GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PRVA)
EXSCIENTIA PLC (XNAS:EXAI)
SCHRODINGER, INC. (XNAS:SDGR)
LIGAND PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED (XNAS:LGND)
FULGENT GENETICS, INC. (XNAS:FLGT)
DEFINITIVE HEALTHCARE CORP. (XNAS:DH)
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (XNAS:AUPH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�21%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
103.08M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
24.46M
78.63M
411.92M
118.50M
118.50M
-
-
530.42M
1.55M
41.55M
14.33M
- 434793.00K
- 453271.00K
- 491263.00K
- 490672.00K
591.00K
- 491263.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.73M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
20.96M
Change in Working Capital :
14.51M
Accounts Receivables:
- 7728.00K
Other Working Capital:
8.71M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 37232.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 88424.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 4203.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 93493.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
67.99M
599.03M
667.03M
30.22M
15.38M
20.83M
733.46M
175.28M
76.50M
-
37.36M
-
1.52M
290.66M
-
1.02B
12.62M
19.60M
-
-
73.07M
105.28M
122.64M
188.31M
310.95M
-
416.23M
19.00K
- 2923388.00K
- 6532.0K
3.54B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
554.88M
607.89M
1.02B
636.40M
142.24M
74.2M
227.97M
-
130.28M
-
-
-
-
938.00K
938.00K
- 17.00K
42.78M
67.99M
25.22M
- 88424.00K
- 4203.00K
- 92627.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NKTR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$4.33
$4.67
$5.02
$5.41
$5.82