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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Paccar Inc (XNAS:PCAR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PCAR
Name:
PACCAR INC (XNAS:PCAR)
Sector:
90.70M
Industry:
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
CEO:
Mr. R. Preston Feight
Total Employees:
28,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 408.64% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PACCAR INC(PCAR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FARM & HEAVY CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
86.47
One Month Price Target:
$86.9
Six Month Price Target :
$89.03
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$91.59
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$86.22
Price Upper limit ($) :
$86.77
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$83.14
This week:
$79.03
This month :
$71.59
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
30.19B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
347.72M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.21%
-7.62%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$101.91
$94.84
$71.03
$78.10
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$92.54
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$91.03
$80.38
$81.91
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PCAR
Sharpe Ratio:
0.93%
Comparison:
PCAR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -54.33% lower than the industry
& is -59.19% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PCAR
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.13%
Monthly returns:
0.53%
Yearly returns:
21.02%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -69.87% below industry average
Classification:
PCAR, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.36
Statistical test of Returns:
PCAR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.89%
Weekly Volatility:
4.22%
Monthly Volatility:
8.44%
Yearly Volatility:
29.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.48%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.66% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.85%
Weekly VaR:
-8.60%
Monthly VaR:
-17.21%
How Much Can the price of
PCAR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-59.61%
This translates to price declining to:
$73.57
This translates to price declining to:
$34.92
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PCAR is a 21.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 4.05% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -44.02% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PCAR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.88
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.623
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.882
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.605
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.606
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.602
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.126
Beta is -21.75% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.134
Beta is -22.29% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.31%
Sustainable growth rate is -24.04% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.029
Alpha is -128.21% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -182% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PCAR
Equity cost of capital:
0.092
Equity cost of capital is -15.86% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.31%
Before-tax cost of debt:
9.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.15%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.15%
WACC is -15.42% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$69.45
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.48
Annual revenue growth rate is -87.98% below industry average
EPS:
$5.69
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-8.21%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -202.00% lower than the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.33
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -11.16%
Equity growth rate per share is -111.84% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$20.41
EBITDA per share
$12.55
Valuation Analysis Today of
PCAR
P/E Ratio:
13.64
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.47
P/E ratio is -56.66% lower than main peers & is -47.19% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $146.97
PCAR is -41.17% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.25
Price to sales ratio is -31.77% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.48
Price to free cash flow: 65.15
Price to free cash flow ratio is 68.66% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-14.85%
Net income growth rate is -130.15% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 32.25%
Dividend yeild: 2.91%
Previous Dividend: $0.34
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.34
Previous Dividend: $2.52
Expected next dividend best case: $0.64
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.04
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.47
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 30.41%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$0.34
2021-12-16--$1.50
2021-08-17--$0.34
2022-02-07--$0.34
2021-11-15--$0.34
2021-05-11--$0.34
Dividend growth rate is -56.53% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
58.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
62.13%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
24.67%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -45.92% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.44
Interest coverage ratio is -83.20% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.88%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.33%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.701
Statistical significance of correlation:
PCAR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.555
Stock price is 26.35% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.555
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.009
Kurtosis
7.676
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.865
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PCAR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
66%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.12%
Operating profit margin is -294.13% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
66%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.03%
Effective tax rate is -65.82% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.33%
Return on equity (ROE) is 11.48% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.48%
Return on assets (ROA) is 40.02% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.47
Current ratio is 0.46% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-83.8
Cash conversion cycle is -272.97% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 23.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
847.3K
Each employee generates 61% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
153.1K
Each employee generates -337% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
69.6K
Each employee generates -178% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.2K
Each employee generates -2% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
292.0K
Each employee generates -2% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 18.33%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -80.56% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PCAR
COPART, INC. (XNAS:CPRT)
VERISK ANALYTICS, INC. (XNAS:VRSK)
Fastenal Company (XNAS:FAST)
RYANAIR HOLDINGS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:RYAAY)
CINTAS CORPORATION (XNAS:CTAS)
EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON, INC (XNAS:EXPD)
J. B. HUNT TRANSPORT SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:JBHT)
PAYCHEX, INC. (XNAS:PAYX)
BNGOW
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�21%
Hold�58%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
24.15B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
20.14B
4.01B
322.00M
-
699.40M
-
542.10M
1.56B
91.40M
982.90M
837.30M
4.36B
2.44B
1.98B
2.54B
560.20M
1.98B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
185.70M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 179700.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 708400.00K
Other Working Capital:
209.30M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 147200.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
459.30M
Investments in PP&E:
- 368600.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 207700.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.31B
1.52B
4.83B
14.49B
2.22B
720.50M
22.26B
6.52B
-
-
-
-
1.80B
8.32B
-
30.59B
5.25B
3.76B
-
-
-
9.01B
7.10B
1.41B
9.43B
-
18.44B
347.70M
12.51B
- 877700.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
21.71B
12.14B
30.59B
-
10.86B
7.5B
203.90M
- 33700.00K
- 406100.00K
- 645100.00K
-
- 1900.00K
- 639400.00K
1.13B
- 156400.00K
- 10200.00K
- 113400.00K
3.31B
3.43B
459.30M
- 368600.00K
90.70M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PCAR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$116.15
$123.03
$130.31
$138.03
$146.20