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Paccar Inc (XNAS:PCAR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

PCAR

Name:

PACCAR INC (XNAS:PCAR)

Sector:

90.70M

Industry:

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

CEO:

Mr. R. Preston Feight

Total Employees:

28,500

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

A+

Technological advancement compared to industry is 408.64% higher

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PACCAR INC(PCAR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FARM & HEAVY CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

86.47

One Month Price Target:

$86.9

Six Month Price Target :

$89.03

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$91.59

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
 

$86.22

Price Upper limit ($) :

$86.77

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$83.14

                                                               This week:

$79.03

                                                        This month :

$71.59

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

30.19B

Market Cap Classification:

Large Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

347.72M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
 

Highest Daily Appreciation:

14.21%

-7.62%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$101.91

$94.84

$71.03

$78.10

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$92.54

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$91.03

$80.38

$81.91

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

PCAR

Sharpe Ratio:

0.93%

Comparison:

PCAR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is -54.33% lower than the industry

& is -59.19% lower than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

PCAR

Daily returns:

0.03%

Weekly returns:

0.13%

Monthly returns:

0.53%

Yearly returns:

21.02%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -69.87% below industry average

Classification:

PCAR, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.36

Statistical test of Returns:

PCAR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market

SHARPE ratio explained.png

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

1.89%

Weekly Volatility:

4.22%

Monthly Volatility:

8.44%

Yearly Volatility:

29.22%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation) 

Average Volatility of this Week:

0.48%

Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.66% below long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-3.85%

Weekly VaR:

-8.60%

Monthly VaR:

-17.21%

How Much Can the price of

PCAR

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession: 

Base case (decline):

-15%

Worst case (decline):

-59.61%

This translates to price declining to:

$73.57

This translates to price declining to:

$34.92

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

VaR explained figure

Risk Fundamentals

PCAR is a 21.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 4.05% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is -44.02% below industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

PCAR

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.88

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

0.623

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

0.882

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

0.605

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

0.606

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.602

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

1.126

Beta is -21.75% lower than peers

Average Industry Beta: 

1.134

Beta is -22.29% below industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

10.31%

Sustainable growth rate is -24.04% below industry average

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis 

Alpha provided:

-0.029

Alpha is -128.21% below industry average alpha yield

Alpha is -182% below the market average

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

PCAR

Equity cost of capital:

0.092

Equity cost of capital is -15.86% below industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:  

6.31%

Before-tax cost of debt:

9.05%

After-tax cost of debt:

7.15%

Overall debt rating:

Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

7.15%

WACC is -15.42% below industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$69.45

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

2.48

Annual revenue growth rate is -87.98% below industry average

EPS:

$5.69

Expected Annual growth rate of  EPS (3Y):

-8.21%

Expected future EPS growth rate is -202.00% lower than the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

$1.33

Balance sheet equity growth per share: -11.16%

Equity growth rate per share is -111.84% lower than the industry

Debt per share

$20.41

EBITDA per share

$12.55

Valuation Analysis Today of

PCAR

P/E Ratio:

13.64

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

31.47

P/E ratio is -56.66% lower than main peers & is -47.19% lower than the industry

Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $146.97

PCAR is -41.17% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

-

-

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

1.25

Price to sales ratio is -31.77% below the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

2.48

Price to free cash flow: 65.15

Price to free cash flow ratio is 68.66% higher than the industry

Net income growth rate (3Y):

-14.85%

Net income growth rate is -130.15% lower than the industry average net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

Dividend payout rate: 32.25%

Dividend yeild: 2.91%

Previous Dividend: $0.34

Previous adjusted dividend: $0.34

Previous Dividend: $2.52

Expected next dividend best case: $0.64

Expected next dividend worst case: $0.04

Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.47

Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 30.41%

Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022

Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022

Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022

Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022

Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022

Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022

Dividend History:

2022-05-10--$0.34

2021-12-16--$1.50

2021-08-17--$0.34

2022-02-07--$0.34

2021-11-15--$0.34

2021-05-11--$0.34

Dividend growth rate is -56.53% lower than the industry average

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

58.45%

Net debt to equity ratio:

62.13%

Debt to assets ratio:

23.20%

Net debt to assets ratio:

24.67%

Debt-to-asset ratio is -45.92% below industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

4.44

Interest coverage ratio is -83.20% less than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

-3.88%

Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.33%

Analysis of Key Statistics  

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.701

Statistical significance of correlation:

PCAR has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of  the industry with the market:

0.555

Stock price is 26.35% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market): 

0.555

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

0.009

Covariance  of price movement with the market:

0.009

Kurtosis 

7.676

Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns

Skewness of returns:

0.865

Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

PCAR

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

66%

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

10.12%

Operating profit margin is -294.13% lower than the industry

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

66%

Effective Tax Rate:

22.03%

Effective tax rate is -65.82% lower than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

×

ROA

=

×

16.33%

Return on equity (ROE) is 11.48% higher than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

6.48%

Return on assets (ROA) is 40.02% higher than the industry

Financial Leverage:

1.3x

Current Ratio:

2.47

Current ratio is 0.46% above industry average

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

-83.8

Cash conversion cycle is -272.97% below industry average

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 23.2 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

-

In-depth Efficiency  Analysis

Revenue generated per employee:

847.3K

Each employee generates 61% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee

EBITDA generated per employee: 

153.1K

Each employee generates -337% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee

Profit generated per employee: 

69.6K

Each employee generates -178% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee

Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee: 

3.2K

Each employee generates -2% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Assets/Capital per employee

292.0K

Each employee generates -2% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Research & Development (R&D) Analysis

Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 18.33%

Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -80.56% lower than the industry

Competitors/Peer firms of 

PCAR

COPART, INC. (XNAS:CPRT)

VERISK ANALYTICS, INC. (XNAS:VRSK)

Fastenal Company (XNAS:FAST)

RYANAIR HOLDINGS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:RYAAY)

CINTAS CORPORATION (XNAS:CTAS)

EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON, INC (XNAS:EXPD)

J. B. HUNT TRANSPORT SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:JBHT)

PAYCHEX, INC. (XNAS:PAYX)

BNGOW

Current Analyst Ratings

Strong buy�13%

Buy�21%

Hold�58%

Sell�4%

Strong sell�0%

Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold

Income Statement

Period:

TTM

Date:

3/31/22

Revenue:

24.15B

Cost of Revenue:

Gross Profit:

R&D Expense

General & Admin Expenses:

Selling, General & Admin Expenses

Sales and Marketing Expenses

Other Expenses :

Operating Expenses :

Cost & Expenses :

Interest Income:

Interest Expenses:

Depreciation & Amortization:

EBITDA:

Operating Income:

Other Income Expenses:

Income Before Tax:

Income Tax Expense:

Net Income:

Balance Sheet

Date:

Calendar Year:

Period:

Cash & Cash Equivalents:

Short Term Investments:

Cash & Short Term Investments:

Net Receivables:

Inventory:

Other Current Assets:

Total Current Assets:

PP&E:

Goodwill: 

Intangible Assets: 

Long Term Investments: 

Tax Assets: 

Other Non-Current Assets: 

Total Non-Current Assets: 

Other Assets: 

Total Assets: 

Accounts Payable: 

Short Term Debt:

Tax Payables:

Deferred Revenue:

Other Current Liabilities:

Total Current Liabilities:

Long Term Debt:

Other Non-Current Liabilities:

Total Non Current Liabilities:

Other Liabilities:

Total Liabilities:

Common Stock:

Retained Earnings:

Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:

Other Total Stockholders' Equity:

Total Stockholders' Equity:

Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:

Total Investments:

Total Debt:

Net Debt:

20.14B

4.01B

322.00M

-

699.40M

-

542.10M

1.56B

91.40M

982.90M

837.30M

4.36B

2.44B

1.98B

2.54B

560.20M

1.98B

Statement of Cash Flow

Date:

Period:

185.70M

Differed Income Tax :

-

Stock Based Compensation :

-

Change in Working Capital :

- 179700.00K

Accounts Receivables:

- 708400.00K

Other Working Capital:

209.30M

Other Non-Cash Items:

- 147200.00K

Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:

459.30M

Investments in PP&E:

- 368600.00K

Net Acquisitions:

-

Purchases of Investments:

- 207700.00K

Sales/Maturities of Investments:

Other Investing Activities:

​Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:

Debt Repayment:

Common Stock Issued:

Common Stock Repurchased:

Dividend Paid:

Other Financing Activities:

Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:

Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:

Net Changes in Cash:

Cash at End of Period:

Cash at Beginning of Period:

Operating Cash Flow:

Capital Expenditure:

Free Cash Flow (FCF):

3/31/22

2022

Q1

3.31B

1.52B

4.83B

14.49B

2.22B

720.50M

22.26B

6.52B

-

-

-

-

1.80B

8.32B

-

30.59B

5.25B

3.76B

-

-

-

9.01B

7.10B

1.41B

9.43B

-

18.44B

347.70M

12.51B

- 877700.0K

-

March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM

21.71B

12.14B

30.59B

-

10.86B

7.5B

203.90M

- 33700.00K

- 406100.00K

- 645100.00K

-

- 1900.00K

- 639400.00K

1.13B

- 156400.00K

- 10200.00K

- 113400.00K

3.31B

3.43B

459.30M

- 368600.00K

90.70M

Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating

Our Rating:

A+

Portfolio rating_explained.png
Tech rating_explained.png
Alpha explained.png

Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of

PCAR

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

$116.15

$123.03

$130.31

$138.03

$146.20

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