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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Sandy Spring Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:SASR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SASR
Name:
SANDY SPRING BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:SASR)
Sector:
61.66M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Daniel Schrider
Total Employees:
1,084
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -1681.12% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SANDY SPRING BANCORP, INC.(SASR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
38.39
One Month Price Target:
$38.61
Six Month Price Target :
$39.68
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$40.97
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$38.22
Price Upper limit ($) :
$38.59
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$36.18
This week:
$33.46
This month :
$28.53
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.70B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
44.64M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.49%
-19.76%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.62
$43.93
$28.16
$32.85
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$42.40
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.40
$34.37
$35.38
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SASR
Sharpe Ratio:
1.45%
Comparison:
SASR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 18.35% higher than the industry
& is -36.21% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SASR
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.25%
Monthly returns:
1.00%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 9.69% above industry average
Classification:
SASR, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.72
Statistical test of Returns:
SASR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.82%
Weekly Volatility:
6.31%
Monthly Volatility:
12.62%
Yearly Volatility:
43.71%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.02%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -99.34% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.74%
Weekly VaR:
-12.84%
Monthly VaR:
-25.69%
How Much Can the price of
SASR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-88.99%
This translates to price declining to:
$29.89
This translates to price declining to:
$4.23
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SASR is a 81.32% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 55.33% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.24% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SASR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.00
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.656
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.927
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.842
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.502
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.875
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.159
Beta is -13.70% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 3.79% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.89%
Sustainable growth rate is 30.22% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.020
Alpha is 69.54% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 125% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SASR
Equity cost of capital:
0.100
Equity cost of capital is 2.57% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.42%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.59%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.42%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.42%
WACC is -14.33% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.48
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.15
Annual revenue growth rate is -17.97% below industry average
EPS:
$4.37
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.29%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 27.16% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.20
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 17.17%
Equity growth rate per share is -55.65% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$8.29
EBITDA per share
$6.82
Valuation Analysis Today of
SASR
P/E Ratio:
8.79
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.92
P/E ratio is -48.05% lower than main peers & is -29.17% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $54.23
SASR is -29.20% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $32.49
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $15.35
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.34
Price to sales ratio is -21.80% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.15
Price to free cash flow: 7.39
Price to free cash flow ratio is -49.45% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
77.75%
Net income growth rate is 41.18% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.59%
Dividend yeild: 3.44%
Previous Dividend: $0.34
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.34
Previous Dividend: $1.32
Expected next dividend best case: $0.35
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.33
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.31
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.29%
Expected next dividend payment date: 16/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 18/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$0.34
2021-11-09--$0.32
2021-05-11--$0.32
2022-02-17--$0.34
2021-08-10--$0.32
2021-02-16--$0.32
Dividend growth rate is -94.52% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
24.85%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-12.25%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.85%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.41%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.29% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.73
Interest coverage ratio is 1676.85% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-71.51%
Annual debt growth is -22679% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.444
Statistical significance of correlation:
SASR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -11.40% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.029
Kurtosis
6.718
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.11
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SASR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.08%
Operating profit margin is -99.78% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
24.58%
Effective tax rate is 14.07% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.67%
Return on equity (ROE) is 14.61% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.57%
Return on assets (ROA) is -31.88% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 19.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.72%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
472.8K
Each employee generates 25% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
281.1K
Each employee generates 24% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
187.8K
Each employee generates 33% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
56.9K
Each employee generates -32% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.8M
Each employee generates -32% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SASR
TRIUMPH BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:TBK)
CORVEL CORPORATION (XNAS:CRVL)
SEACOAST BANKING CORPORATION OF FLORIDA (XNAS:SBCF)
HEARTLAND FINANCIAL USA, INC. (XNAS:HTLF)
BGC PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:BGCP)
TOWNE BANK (XNAS:TOWN)
VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:VRTS)
WASHINGTON FEDERAL, INC. (XNAS:WAFD)
BANCFIRST CORPORATION (XNAS:BANF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
512.47M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
178.20M
182.91M
4.71M
-
-
442.06M
20.69M
14.09M
304.70M
-
203.58M
269.92M
66.34M
203.58M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.03M
Differed Income Tax :
3.93M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.47M
Change in Working Capital :
- 8558.00K
Accounts Receivables:
821.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
21.30M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
65.10M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 232295.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
552.46M
1.26B
1.81B
33.53M
-
-
-
61.43M
370.22M
24.41M
1.55B
-
-
2.00B
14.97B
12.97B
124.93M
-
-
-
-
-
370.00M
-
370.00M
11.85B
11.48B
45.16M
760.35M
- 69271.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.49B
12.97B
2.81B
370.00M
- 182454.0K
74.41M
- 177486.00K
- 335375.00K
-
800.00K
- 629.00K
- 15446.00K
418.35M
403.08M
-
132.81M
552.83M
420.02M
65.10M
- 3440.00K
61.66M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SASR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$41.17
$61.88
$66.04
$70.48
$75.22