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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Tapestry, Inc. (XNYS:TPR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TPR
Name:
TAPESTRY, INC. (XNYS:TPR)
Sector:
- 11600.00K
Industry:
Luxury Goods
CEO:
Mr. Jide Zeitlin
Total Employees:
12,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -24.95% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TAPESTRY, INC.(TPR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LUXURY GOODS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
34.53
One Month Price Target:
$34.79
Six Month Price Target :
$36.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$37.66
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$34.35
Price Upper limit ($) :
$34.79
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$31.86
This week:
$28.56
This month :
$22.6
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.09B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
241.22M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.68%
-29.27%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.90
$41.19
$22.16
$27.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$39.33
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.11
$29.72
$30.95
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TPR
Sharpe Ratio:
2.80%
Comparison:
TPR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 222.89% higher than the industry
& ratio is 22.94% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TPR
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.58%
Monthly returns:
2.32%
Yearly returns:
12.13%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 129.25% above industry average
Classification:
TPR, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.36
Statistical test of Returns:
TPR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.82%
Weekly Volatility:
8.54%
Monthly Volatility:
17.08%
Yearly Volatility:
59.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.63%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -57.26% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.73%
Weekly VaR:
-17.28%
Monthly VaR:
-34.55%
How Much Can the price of
TPR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.44
This translates to price declining to:
$5.18
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TPR is a 143.86% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 108.91% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -32.32% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TPR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.35
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.831
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.176
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.797
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.16
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.228
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.478
Beta is -8.75% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.644
Beta is -17.95% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.29%
Sustainable growth rate is 93.22% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.154
Alpha is -775.74% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 981% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TPR
Equity cost of capital:
0.124
Equity cost of capital is -14.02% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.33%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.87%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.48%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.48%
WACC is 62.53% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$27.67
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.64
Annual revenue growth rate is -98.24% below industry average
EPS:
$3.10
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.06%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 18.42% higher than the Luxury Goods industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.33
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 300.00% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$11.04
EBITDA per share
$5.49
Valuation Analysis Today of
TPR
P/E Ratio:
10.96
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.29
P/E ratio is -28.36% lower than main peers & is -92.45% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $449.97
TPR is -92.33% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $13.26
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $5.39
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.25
Price to sales ratio is -0.29% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.64
Price to free cash flow: 10.38
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
115.53%
Net income growth rate is -248.29% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.02%
Dividend yeild: 2.90%
Previous Dividend: $0.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.25
Previous Dividend: $1.00
Expected next dividend best case: $0.31
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.19
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -5.19%
Expected next dividend payment date: 26/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 27/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.25
2021-12-02--$0.25
2020-03-05--$0.34
2022-03-03--$0.25
2021-09-03--$0.25
2019-12-05--$0.34
Dividend growth rate is -89.62% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
84.52%
Net debt to equity ratio:
67.39%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.22%
Net debt to assets ratio:
26.49%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.72% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
20.94
Interest coverage ratio is 619.56% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
27.61%
Annual debt growth is -58% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.654
Statistical significance of correlation:
TPR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.389
Stock price is 68.11% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.389
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.034
Kurtosis
11.896
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.016
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TPR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
282%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.78%
Operating profit margin is -274.72% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
282%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.23%
Effective tax rate is -49.18% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
27.53%
Return on equity (ROE) is -182.72% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.82%
Return on assets (ROA) is -319.02% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.87
Current ratio is -16.56% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-60.1
Cash conversion cycle is -180.34% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.72%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
529.8K
Each employee generates 93% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
105.0K
Each employee generates 405% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
68.8K
Each employee generates 8807% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.9K
Each employee generates -92% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
391.1K
Each employee generates -92% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TPR
FARFETCH LIMITED (XNYS:FTCH)
SERVICE CORPORATION INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:SCI)
GAMESTOP CORP. (XNYS:GME)
RH (XNYS:RH)
LEAR CORPORATION (XNYS:LEA)
On Holding Ltd (XNYS:ONON)
BORGWARNER INC. (XNYS:BWA)
Berry Global Group, Inc. (XNYS:BERY)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�33%
Buy�54%
Hold�54%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
6.68B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.98B
4.70B
-
-
3.51B
-
-
3.51B
-
63.20M
199.60M
1.32B
1.19B
867.30M
1.06B
193.40M
867.30M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
50.80M
Differed Income Tax :
- 12400.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
14.90M
Change in Working Capital :
- 259600.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 40300.00K
Other Working Capital:
1.44B
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.20M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
21.80M
Investments in PP&E:
- 33400.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 402900.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
10/2/21
2022
Q1
1.25B
402.60M
1.66B
430.50M
818.30M
182.20M
3.09B
2.10B
1.29B
1.37B
-
-
158.20M
4.93B
-
8.01B
414.00M
712.80M
37.50M
-
519.80M
1.65B
2.66B
364.00M
3.22B
-
4.86B
2.80M
- 251200.00K
- 82100.0K
3.48B
October 2, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
5.49B
3.15B
8.01B
-
3.38B
2.1B
7.90M
-
- 428400.00K
- 200.00K
-
- 250000.00K
- 69600.00K
- 26400.00K
- 346200.00K
- 2300.00K
- 755100.00K
1.25B
2.01B
21.80M
- 33400.00K
- 11600.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TPR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$45.93
$50.09
$54.63
$59.58
$64.98