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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Wolfspeed, Inc. (XNYS:WOLF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WOLF
Name:
Wolfspeed, Inc. (XNYS:WOLF)
Sector:
- 322800.00K
Industry:
Semiconductors
CEO:
Total Employees:
4,017
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -391.32% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WOLFSPEED, INC.(WOLF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTORS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
108.91
One Month Price Target:
$109.87
Six Month Price Target :
$114.67
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$120.43
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$108.33
Price Upper limit ($) :
$109.98
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$99.21
This week:
$87.23
This month :
$65.54
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
13.54B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
124.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.2%
-17.52%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$153.85
$132.87
$63.97
$84.95
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$126.04
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$121.56
$91.72
$96.26
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WOLF
Sharpe Ratio:
4.83%
Comparison:
WOLF, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 55.94% higher than the industry
& ratio is 111.84% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WOLF
Daily returns:
0.22%
Weekly returns:
1.12%
Monthly returns:
4.47%
Yearly returns:
31.95%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 67.87% above industry average
Classification:
WOLF, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.84
Statistical test of Returns:
WOLF has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.44%
Weekly Volatility:
9.94%
Monthly Volatility:
19.88%
Yearly Volatility:
68.85%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.63%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -85.80% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.90%
Weekly VaR:
-19.91%
Monthly VaR:
-39.82%
How Much Can the price of
WOLF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$73.36
This translates to price declining to:
$16.34
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WOLF is a 181.05% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 140.78% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 25.23% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WOLF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.137
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.607
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.101
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.641
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.037
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-
Average Industry Beta:
1.41
Beta is 11.63% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.397
Alpha is 107.45% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2527% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WOLF
Equity cost of capital:
0.139
Equity cost of capital is 8.77% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.75%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.49%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.96%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.96%
WACC is 3.65% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.35
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.63
Annual revenue growth rate is -331.61% below industry average
EPS:
-$130,765.00
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.77%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -96.60% lower than the Semiconductors industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$6.80
EBITDA per share
-$1.98
Valuation Analysis Today of
WOLF
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
- & is higher than the industry
-
WOLF is -100.00% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
20.37
Price to sales ratio is 150.62% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.63
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
69.04%
Net income growth rate is -220.53% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.00%
Previous Dividend: $0.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.00
Previous Dividend: $0.00
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
2021-09-24--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
41.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
29.00%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.99%
Net debt to assets ratio:
18.21%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -33.33% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-11.61
Interest coverage ratio is -135.41% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
5.05%
Annual debt growth is -94% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.33%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.623
Statistical significance of correlation:
WOLF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.627
Stock price is -0.65% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.627
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.012
Kurtosis
9.173
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.168
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WOLF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
129%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-49.10%
Operating profit margin is -308.70% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
129%
Effective Tax Rate:
-3.78%
Effective tax rate is -125.07% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-18.68%
Return on equity (ROE) is -165.31% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-11.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is -189.07% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
3.86
Current ratio is -4.91% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
71.5
Cash conversion cycle is 29.63% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.83%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
165.2K
Each employee generates -73% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 61.3K
Each employee generates -126% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 94.8K
Each employee generates -159% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 80.4K
Each employee generates -389% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
502.1K
Each employee generates -389% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -3.47%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -124.54% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
WOLF
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/27/22
Revenue:
663.50M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
449.30M
214.20M
193.30M
-
195.10M
-
37.50M
425.90M
8.30M
21.20M
99.80M
- 246100.00K
- 325800.00K
- 380900.00K
- 364700.00K
13.80M
- 380900.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
34.60M
Differed Income Tax :
200.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
14.60M
Change in Working Capital :
- 49200.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 10500.00K
Other Working Capital:
2.70M
Other Non-Cash Items:
7.40M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 62500.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 259300.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 8700.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/26/21
2022
Q1
261.50M
596.30M
857.80M
112.90M
183.00M
78.20M
1.23B
1.34B
359.20M
136.50M
-
1.00M
176.90M
2.02B
-
3.25B
38.20M
8.70M
400.00K
25.60M
246.50M
319.00M
844.30M
43.40M
890.40M
-
1.21B
100.00K
- 1633200.00K
1.9M
3.67B
September 26, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
875.20M
2.04B
3.25B
-
853.00M
591.5M
185.70M
50.30M
- 32000.00K
- 20100.00K
700.00K
-
-
- 3500.00K
- 22900.00K
- 100.00K
- 117500.00K
261.50M
379.00M
- 62500.00K
- 260300.00K
- 322800.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WOLF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$112.90
$124.85
$138.06
$152.66
$168.81